Improved lithium-ion battery health prediction with data-based approach

Abstract

The accurate modeling and forecasting of Battery State of Health (SOH) is crucial for ensuring reliable performance and longevity of lithium-ion batteries. This article introduces a data-driven approach for SOH prediction using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), selected for its ability to model complex data relationships and capture prediction uncertainty without relying on future load information. Recognizing the effect of reversible capacity recoveries on prediction accuracy, this work employs the ISEA-RWTH 48 Li-ion Cells dataset, deliberately devoid of such recoveries prior to training the GPR model. The GPR model was evaluated and compared with Support Vector Regression (SVR) using the publicly available dataset. First and second End of Life (EOL) scenarios were considered, relevant to primary and secondary battery applications. The results demonstrated the GPR model's superior performance. Particularly, mid-life and late-life predictions displayed better accuracy with GPR, showcasing higher R2 values and lower MAPE values (e.g., mid-life prediction: GPR's average R2 = 0.99, SVR's = 0.9789; GPR's average MAPE = 0.1916, SVR's = 1.3028). Moreover, GPR exhibited the ability to quantify uncertainty in capacity degradation and forecast first and second EOL instances effectively (e.g., mid-life predictions had 1.7 cycle error at 1st EOL and 8.9 cycle error at 2nd EOL). The research also offers valuable insights into the application of machine learning methods for predicting the health degradation of lithium-ion batteries.