Improved Learning Cycle Assessment of Stimulated Wells’ Performance through Advanced Mathematical Modeling

Abstract

Summary In this paper, we forecast cumulative production for stimulated gas wells using a combination of fast-to-implement modeling methodologies, including polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian processes (GP) proxy models coupled with populations of phenomenological models (POMs). These modeling techniques allow for a reduction in forecast uncertainty and are shown to be effective techniques for extrapolating early time data for stimulated well production from a field of wells in the Surat Basin, Queensland, Australia. The proposed techniques strategically capture and capitalize on production trends across an entire gas field, even in the presence of early production transients. We demonstrate that learning cycles can be shortened, leading to reasonable forecasts, as well as meaningful and actionable insights.