Improved general unit hydrograph model for dam-break flood hydrograph

Abstract

Dam breaks pose significant risks, necessitating simple and effective predictive models for disaster management. This study aims to enhance the understanding of dam-break flood hydrographs, an aspect less emphasized in traditional research focusing mainly on peak discharge and flow depth values. Employing a series of experiments, an improved general unit hydrograph model was used to analyze both discharge and flow depth hydrographs. This model is then critically compared with the standard gamma and log-normal asymmetric distribution models. The results reveal that the improved unit hydrograph model significantly outperforms these traditional models, particularly in predicting the rising stage of discharge hydrographs, evidenced by a 65 % reduction in root mean square error. Comparison of this model with real dam failures in natural river valleys shows its potential to be applied to changes in river slope and different dam-break rates. These advancements present a more precise methodology for predicting dam-break flood hydrographs, offering benefits for disaster management strategies.