Improved forecast assessment for the expected credit losses in credit risk monitoring in commercial banks in the context of international and Russian practices

Abstract

Current banking sector’s performance raises the issues connected with the IFRS 9 Financial Instruments driven transformation of the forecast assessment for the expected credit losses during monitoring and credit risk assessment in commercial banks. In this regard, it becomes important to conduct a comprehensive systematization of the existing Russian and international practices for monitoring and evaluating credit risk in commercial banks. The purpose of the study is to develop a comprehensive approach to the use of an effective model for the impairment of expected losses in banking activities. The novelty of the study includes the enhancement of the tools for the forecast assessment of the expected credit losses among the commercial banks’ clients to improve the credit risk management efficiency. The results from the implementation of IFRS 9 Financial Instruments in the banking area show that modern conditions maintain the uncertainty of the long-term impact of the credit risk on the commercial banks’ performance. What is more, a huge amount of additional information gives significant difficulties, which contributes into the sophisticated calculations of the future credit losses of the banks. It has been justified that a forecast assessment model for the expected credit losses of the clients during the monitoring and bank’s credit risk assessment should be based on the collective or individual ground. The efficient application of the expected losses impairment in the banking performance has been described as a fundamental tool to simulate the expected credit losses to provision for impairment. This model has been shown to be determined by the features of the credit activities and bank portfolio, types of its financial tools, sources of the available information, as well as the applied IT systems. The proposed model validation algorithm for the expected impairment losses could reduce the expected credit losses, decrease the volume of the created assessed reserves, as well as improve the overall commercial bank performance efficiency. Theoretically, the study develops the credit losses risk management in the context of the transformations in the global and Russian banking practices. From the perspective of the practical value, the research gives an opportunity to create an efficient forecast assessment model for the expected credit losses of the commercial banks’ clients, this model contributing into the cost effectiveness of the bank’s credit activities. A promising further research is considered to be aimed at developing the tools for the assessment of the commercial banks’ credit activity results in the context of the adopted changes connected with the introduction of IFRS 9 Financial Instruments in the Russian banking sector.