Improved Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: Implementing Risk Assessment and Conflict Risk Mitigation with Probabilistic Linguistic Information

Abstract

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a system reliability analysis technique that has been widely used in various industries to reduce the failure risk of products, systems, and services. However, traditional FMEA methods have limitations in managing the complex uncertain environment as well as the aggregation and weight allocation of FMEA attributes. Complex real-world problems usually involve multiple decision-makers. Individual perceptions and subjective factors are likely to lead to the differences in opinion, and even the conflict risk, which can ultimately become a challenge to achieve a highly recognized solution. This paper proposes an improved FMEA method to implement the risk assessment, which integrates probabilistic linguistic information and conflict risk mitigation. Probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs) are used to describe the risk assessments, and a comprehensive method is applied to determine the weights of the FMEA attributes. Several new operations and distance measures related to PLTSs are defined. Then, a conflict risk mitigation model is developed to reduce the differences among decision-makers’ FMEA risk assessments. Finally, a case study on global production base selection is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Comparative analysis and discussion verify features and advantages of the method.