Improved Drought Resilience Through Continuous Water Service Monitoring and Specialized Institutions—A Longitudinal Analysis of Water Service Delivery Across Motorized Boreholes in Northern Kenya

Nick Turman-Bryant,Corey Nagel,Evan Thomas,Christian Muragijimana,Lauren Stover

doi:10.3390/su11113046

Nick Turman-Bryant, Corey Nagel + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113046

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Abstract

Increasing frequency and severity of drought is driving increased use of groundwater resources in arid regions of Northern Kenya, where approximately 2.5 million people depend on groundwater for personal use, livestock, and limited irrigation. As part of a broader effort to provide more sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene services in the region, we have collected data related to site functionality and use for approximately 120 motorized boreholes across five counties. Using a multilevel model to account for geospatial and temporal clustering, we found that borehole sites, which counties had identified as strategic assets during drought, ran on average about 1.31 h less per day compared to non-strategic borehole sites. As this finding was contrary to our hypothesis that strategic boreholes would exhibit greater use on average compared to non-strategic boreholes, we consider possible explanations for this discrepancy. We also use a coupled human and natural systems framework to explore how policies and program activities in a complex system depend on consistent and reliable feedback mechanisms. Funding was provided by the United States Agency for International Development. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

Highlights

3.6 billion people live in regions that are water-scarce at least one month per year, a condition expected to increase to between 4.8 and 5.7 billion people by 2050 [1]
Sustainable water services have a disproportionate impact on the severity of drought disasters, as the inability to access safe or improved water services has ramifications that are felt rapidly and touch all other aspects of community life in rural regions [10]
While traditional drought strategies have focused on food supplies and getting humanitarian aid to the places where it is needed in a timely manner, recent strategies have shifted their focus to preventing drought emergencies by fostering resilience, building capacity, and developing early warning and rapid response systems to avoid the worst effects of drought emergencies: inter-communal conflict over scarce resources, the destruction of community assets, and the loss of human lives [7]

Summary

Introduction

3.6 billion people live in regions that are water-scarce at least one month per year, a condition expected to increase to between 4.8 and 5.7 billion people by 2050 [1]. Whereas rainfall is increasing in higher latitudes, land areas south of the Sahara in Africa have seen records of dry months increasing by as much as 50%, despite predictions of increased precipitation for the sub-region of Eastern Africa based on climate models [2,3]. The cost in human lives and humanitarian aid has been significant for each of the drought emergencies experienced in Eastern Africa. The five droughts in Kenya between 1998 and 2011 resulted in approximately 1.6 billion USD in humanitarian aid, and each drought affected between two and four million people [7]

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