IMPROVED COASTAL FLOOD RISK ESTIMATES THROUGH INTEGRATED JPM AND COUPLED PHYSICS APPROACH

Abstract

Large scale flood risk computation has enjoyed a metamorphosis since Hurricane Katrina. Improved characterization of risk is the result of improved computational capabilities due to super computer capacity combined with coupled regional hydrodynamic models, improved local hydrodynamic models, improved joint probability models, inclusion of the most important uncertainties, metamodels and increased computational capacity for stochastic simulation. Improvements in our understanding of, and the ability to model, the coupled hydrodynamics of surge and waves has been well documented as has been improvements in the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) for synthesizing synthetic tropical cyclones (TC) that correctly span the practical hazard probability space. However, maintaining the coupled physics and multivariate probability integrity through the entire flood risk computation while incorporating epistemic uncertainty has had relatively little attention. This paper addresses this latter topic within the context of the Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay, TX Pre-Construction, Engineering and Design, Hurricane Coastal Storm Surge and Wave Hazard Assessment.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qYFTO6l7UME