Abstract
Abstract Currently, two sets of automated numerical-statistical forecasts of maximum/minimum (max/min) temperatures for calendar day periods are produced in the day-to-day operations of the National Weather Service. The “early” guidance forecasts are based on output from the Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM) model, while the “final” guidance relies primarily on predictions from the hemispheric Primitive Equation (PE) model. This paper describes recent improvements to the early guidance surface temperature prediction system. The Techniques Development Laboratory recently developed new early guidance equations to forecast calendar day max/min temperatures for projections out to approximately 60 h and hourly temperatures at 3 h intervals out to 51 h for approximately 230 stations in the conterminous United States. A combination of LFM model output, surface weather observations and climatic factors were used in this development. We derived three sets of temperature prediction equations for both the 0000 and 1200 G...
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