Improved and accurate physics-of-failure (PoF) methodology for qualification and lifetime assessment of electronic systems

Abstract

Assessing electronic systems' reliability using prediction handbooks (e.g. MIL-HDBK-217) can lead to wrong reliability predictions due to the assumption of a constant failure rate and the inaccuracy of the proposed semi-empirical models. Despite different initiatives since the last version of the most popular handbook MIL-HDBK-217 (1995) no fundamental improvement was realised that makes use of non-constant failure rate statistics – mandatory to model wear-out - and first principles based Physics-of-Failure modelling.Obtaining detailed PoF models requires physical insights and an extended experimental campaign to establish material properties. This is impossible to perform for a specific application.In this paper, we propose a methodology that combines the two approaches to get an improved reliability estimation and allows for a gradual improvement from a prediction handbook based approach to a PoF based reliability assessment. This methodology has been successfully validated on an industrial case.