Imprecise Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Based on Evidence and Utility Theory

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel imprecise probabilistic risk assessment method to evaluate distribution network failure probability, which is equivalent to research the opposite side of reliability. First, this paper proposes to analyze the interval probabilistic model of distribution network operation reliability using Evidence theory and Bayesian theory. Then the authors implement a novel algorithm for risk assessment combined with fault severity evaluation mode based on the utility theory. Finally, taking a simplified equivalent distribution network system as study case, the intervals results of imprecise risk assessment show that the proposed risk assessment method can effectively evaluate the quantification grading index of risk under different components combination failure within distribution network.