Abstract
Wind power has an increasing share of the Brazilian energy market and may represent 11.6% of total capacity by 2024. For large hydro-thermal systems having high-storage capacity, a complementarity between hydro and wind production could have important effects. The current optimization models are applied to dispatch power plants to meet the market demand and optimize the generation dispatches considering only hydroelectric and thermal power plants. The remaining sources, including wind power, small-hydroelectric plants and biomass plants, are excluded from the optimization model and are included deterministically. This work introduces a general methodology to represent the stochastic behavior of wind production aimed at the planning and operation of large interconnected power systems. In fact, considering the generation of the wind power source stochastically could show the complementarity between the hydro and wind power production, reducing the energy price in the spot market with the reduction of thermal power dispatches. In addition to that, with a reduction in wind power and a simultaneous dry-season occurrence, this model, is able to show the need of thermal power plants dispatches as well as the reduction of the risk of energy shortages.
Highlights
The energy generation in Brazil is dominated by hydropower plants with large reservoirs which are arranged in cascades
Considering the generation of the wind power source stochastically could show the complementarity between the hydro and wind power production, reducing the energy price in the spot market with the reduction of thermal power dispatches
Cases, we analyze the complementarity of wind power generation with hydropower, verifying in dry seasons a) if the wind power can generate more; b) if with more wind power capacity, what is the role of wind power generation to meet the demand; and c) if the behavior with synthetic series is compatible with the observed one when using historical series
Summary
The energy generation in Brazil is dominated by hydropower plants with large reservoirs which are arranged in cascades. Even though this study shows the same focus of our work, it does not detail the methodology for representing the stochastic series, how to consider the wind power plants as small hydro or even use the official model.
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