Importance to Prisoners of Predictability of Release

Abstract

Psychological theory and research on uncertainty and stress has supported the assumption that prisoners prefer determinate to indeterminate sentencing, because it insures predictability of release and alleviates stress, and are willing to incur costs to achieve certainty. In this study, it was hypothesized that prisoners would be willing to serve time beyond their minimums to obtain predictable release dates. Inmates scheduled for parole hearings within one year of the data collection were asked to make hypothetical choices between appearing before the board or serving increasingly longer sentences in exchange for guaranteed release. Most inmates were found to be willing to serve one additional month in prison for guaranteed release but no longer. Furthermore, the desire to minimize time in prison was found to be more important than the need to alleviate stress in determining the amount of additional time inmates would serve. These findings suggest that prisoners desire predictability of release, but only if it can be achieved without significantly extending the length of time served. Implications for the current movement toward determinate sentencing are discussed.