Importance sampling-based probabilistic performance modeling of low-, mid- and high-strength pipelines under coupling effect of hydrogen-induced damage and corrosion

Abstract

In-service long-distance pipelines are a practical approach to implementing large-scale hydrogen transportation under the context of energy transition. However, the hydrogen-induced damage (HID) and corrosion would deteriorate the material properties and load-bearing capacity of the pipelines. In the present study, the coupling effect of HID and corrosion are probabilistically incorporated into the mechanical characterization models for low-, mid- and high-strength pipelines. Spatiotemporal stochastic growth is modeled using the stochastic gamma processes with significantly affected defect geometric parameters to facilitate the uncertain performance status of pipelines. All unknown parameters of the proposed method can be inferred by inducing in-line inspection (ILI) data. The computational framework for importance sampling (IS) has been developed to estimate the system failure probability of corroded natural gas pipelines considering HID. Apply several programs to conduct probability analysis to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that HID affects the failure behavior and safety probability state of pipelines containing corrosion defects. The performances of various strength pipelines have significant differences in deterioration paths due to HID, causing additional maintenance or potentially disastrous consequences. The proposed method has been proven to capture the potential uncertainties of HID and corrosion on different-strength steel pipelines, which is beneficial for the lifecycle management of blended hydrogen natural gas pipelines.