Abstract

This paper quantifies the credit risk loss distribution of the Spanish financial system by introducing a general Monte Carlo importance sampling (IS) approach. We start obtaining all the required information for the Vasicek (1987) model. Then we quantify the loss distribution under the standard IS method introduced by Glasserman and Li (2005) and allocate the total risk over the different institutions in the Spanish financial system. We also extend the current IS framework to deal with more general assumptions like random recoveries and market valuation. Our results show that this approach can be very useful for banking supervisors from a macroprudential point of view and that the risk allocation can vary considerably depending on the valuation model under analysis.

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