Importance of Anthropogenic Determinants of Tubastraea coccinea Invasion in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

Tubastraea coccinea is an invasive coral that has had ecological, economic, and social impacts in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Tubastraea coccinea is considered a major threat to marine biodiversity, whose occurrence in its non-native range has been associated with artificial structures such as oil/gas platforms and shipwrecks. A recent species distribution model identified important determinants of T. coccinea invasion in the northern GoM and projected its potential range expansion. However, the potential effects of anthropogenic factors were not considered. We used boosted regression trees to develop a species distribution model investigating the importance of oil/gas platforms and shipping fairways as determinants of T. coccinea invasion in the northern GoM. Our results indicate that maximum salinity, distance to platform, minimum nitrate, and mean pH were the first to fourth most influential variables, contributing 31.9%, 23.5%, 22.8%, and 21.8%, respectively, to the model. These findings highlight the importance of considering the effects of anthropogenic factors such as oil/gas platforms as potential determinants of range expansion by invasive corals. Such consideration is imperative when installing new platforms and when decommissioning retired platforms.