Importance functions for restart simulation of general Jackson networks

Abstract

RESTART is an accelerated simulation technique that allows the evaluation of extremely low probabilities. In this method a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of the rare event is higher. These regions are defined by means of a function of the system state called the importance function. Guidelines for obtaining suitable importance functions and formulas for the importance function of two-stage networks were provided in previous papers. In this paper, we obtain effective importance functions for RESTART simulation of Jackson networks where the rare set is defined as the number of customers in a particular (‘target’) node exceeding a predefined threshold. Although some rough approximations and assumptions are used to derive the formulas of the importance functions, they are good enough to estimate accurately very low probabilities for different network topologies within short computational time.