Importance Analysis of the Aircraft Flap Mechanism Movement Failure

Abstract

basic events cannot be properly ranked in the case of the uncertain probability. Contrarily, the new importance measure is on the assumption of the uncertain probability of the basic event. By considering the distribution of the traditional importance measure corresponding to the actual uncertainty of the basic event probability, and using a characteristic value, usually the expectation of the importance measure distribution, to describe the effects, the new importance measure can properly rank the basic events with the uncertainty probability. After the probability density evolution method is employed to solve the new importance measure, the basic event importance is analyzed for the unilateral asymmetric movement failure of the aircraft flap mechanism. The results show that the new importance measure solution based on probability density evolution method is efficient under the acceptable precision. Neglect of the actual uncertainty of the basic event probability may introduce error rank, which is demonstrated by the comparison of the illustrations.