Import substitution trends in agriculture of the Russian regions

Abstract

The relevance of the research topic is determined by the importance of the agricultural industry for the development of the Russian economy and the need to determine the results of state support for modernization and competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex. Since at the present stage government regulation includes protectionist policy instruments leading to import substitution in the industry, it is also relevant to study its influence in the context of the overall strategy for the development of agriculture. The problem solved in this research is in determining the trends of import substitution in agriculture in various regions of Russia. In determining sectoral peculiarities, priority is not given to the climatic or socio-economic conditions of the regions (as opposed to traditional, existing approaches) but to changes in the volume and structure of agricultural production, the ratio of export and import of industry products, changes in the volume of investment, etc., which is interpreted as the results of the state policy aimed at the development of the agro-industrial complex. When solving the tasks, we used the import load coefficients and import priority for the country as a whole, the analyzed regions’ clustering, which allowed us to identify typological groups depending on the degree and direction of development of the agricultural industry and the impact of government regulation on it. Such an analysis is based on the conclusions that the agro-industrial complex in Russia is a complex industry characterized by external economies of scale with a dynamically increasing profitability, and its sub-sectors are developing according to the “catch-up growth” scenario, the success of which is largely determined by an adequate strategy and instruments of government regulation. The proposed toolkit in the study can be used as part of monitoring the assessment of the effectiveness of the state strategy for the development of the agro-industrial complex.