Import Risks of Agricultural Products in Foreign Trade

Lina Baranauskaitė,Daiva Jurevičienė

doi:10.3390/economies9030102

Lina Baranauskaitė, Daiva Jurevičienė

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030102

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Abstract

This paper aims to identify the main risk groups according to their significance on imports of agricultural products. After analysis of the scientific literature, eight groups of risks associated with agricultural products import were determined: supply risks, demand risks, production risks, management plus operational risks, logistical plus infrastructural risks, political risks, policy plus regulatory risks and financial risks. In order to assess the importance of all import risk groups, three Multicriteria decision support methods (MCDM)—SAW, TOPSIS and Geometric means—for expert evaluation are used. The article introduces a new import risks assessment framework CIRA (Country’s Imports Risk Assessment) contributing to the systematic approach of a country’s international trade risks management. The results order risk groups according to their importance in the following order: production (the most crucial risk group), logistical plus infrastructural, financial, management plus operational, political, supply, policy plus regulatory and demand risks.

Highlights

The import risks assessment according to their importance by the Geometric mean are ordered in the following manner: production risks, logistical and infrastructural risks, financial risks, management and operational risks, political risks, policy and regulatory risks, supply risks and demand risks
The importance of import risks summarized by all used methods is as follows: production risks, logistical and infrastructural risks, financial risks, management and operational risks, political risks, supply risks, policy and regulatory risks and demand risks
Assessing the risks posed by imports is vital for the well-being of the country’s population and for its security

Summary

Introduction

Trade growth has affected the risk increase in the food sector. There is no doubt that food systems face a daunting triple task that needs to be addressed urgently by seeking synergies between trade-offs and policy coherence challenges (OECD 2020). While international trade is widely studied around the world, it does not address the risks related to it (Gervais 2018). The purpose of this article is to identify the main risk groups for imports that need to be examined in the context of trade in agricultural products in the country and to adapt them according to their importance for the management of international trade. Current work introduces a new imports risk assessment framework, CIRA, contributing to the systematic approach to a country’s international trade risks management.

Literature Analysis

Methodology

Research Results

Discussion and Conclusions