'Import Preservation' in Lieu of Import Substitution

Abstract

Import substitution in the Russian industry shows obvious signs of a slowdown. Both comparative results of actually implemented import substitution quarter-on-quarter and plans of enterprises for the last quarter of the current year attest to this. At the same time, import substitution of machines and equipment was at a higher rate than import substitution of industrial inputs. It is true that the Russian machine building industry does not reduce procurements of imported equipment. The food processing industry is losing momentum in import substitution of inputs either having disillusioned in the domestic raw material base or having exhausted its potential. Significant part of the Russian industry pursues a policy of “import preservation” (in other words, does not reduce the share of imports) or even goes to “import expansion”. The latest assessment of the actual import substitution has been obtained for Q3 and forecast one for Q4 2015. Herewith, estimates of import substitution regarding industrial inputs was done separately from import substitution of machines and equipment. According to the obtained results for Q3 2015 one can make a rather definitive general conclusion: the Russian industry has reduced the scale of import substitution. This refers to all indicators: inputs, equipment, actual changes and plans for Q4 2015. Let us conduct an in-depth analysis of import substitution taking into account comparable results for Q2 2015.