Abstract

Abstrac-t-We offer a method for establishing the distributed lag structure in import demand models a priori. We consider a firm which imports raw materials in a world of uncertainty. Traditional considerations of adjustment and inventory holding costs lead to a forward looking import decision rule. Linear rational expectations modelling allows us to transform the forward looking rule into a finite distributed lag specification. While the resulting model is similar in form to earlier empirical models, it is not subject to the Lucas Critique. The model is fitted to U.S. data over the period 1954-1980.

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