Import and Export Trade Prediction Algorithm of Belt and Road Countries Based on Hybrid RVM Model

Abstract

Due to the large fluctuation of import and export volume and many influencing factors, it is difficult for the general prediction algorithm to obtain more accurate prediction results. To solve this problem, a trade forecasting method based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) optimization hybrid Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) model is proposed. The method firstly finds out the indexes that affect the import and export trade and extracts the principal factors of the indexes as the input data of the model through principal component analysis. Then, based on the single-kernel RVM model training with multiple different kernel functions, the multikernel weighting method was used to construct the hybrid kernel RVM model according to the prediction error of the single-kernel RVM model. Finally, the parameters of the hybrid kernel model were optimized by PSO to improve the prediction accuracy. Close trade will strengthen the dependence between countries, and under this premise, it becomes particularly important to study the frequency of trade between countries. In this paper, the countries along the Belt and Road are classified by the method of high-order directed graph clustering, and the trade transactions between the countries are represented by a small network subgraph. Then, the 65 trading countries are classified by cutting graph and K-means clustering method, and the classification results are obtained by running relevant codes in MATLAB. The results are represented by the lattice graph.