Implications of under-confidence and over-confidence in mathematics at secondary school

Abstract

Confidence is theorised to be motivational and beneficial within education, although it remains unclear how calibration bias (the extent of under-confidence to over-confidence) might arise and what the implications may be. In order to gain new insights, a longitudinal sample of 3203 secondary school students in Germany was considered at Grade 5 and Grade 9. Predictive modelling explored what factors predicted calibration bias, and whether/how calibration bias predicted other outcomes. The results offered many new insights including that, at Grade 9, calibration bias (i.e. higher over-confidence) negatively predicted mathematics grades but positively predicted mathematics self-concept (subject-level confidence), school self-concept (general educational confidence), and self-esteem (an indicator of well-being), accounting for students’ background characteristics and an array of other predictors.