Implications of the Technology S-Curve for Corporate Strategists

Abstract

One can’t help but be interested in the issue of technological change. It is all around us and very visible. Some people may not like it, and others may resent what they see as constant demands to upgrade or change technologies. I hit that point several years ago in IT support when I got fed up with Microsoft and PCs (back when they were expensive) because it felt like you were constantly throwing money at them when an Office upgrade meant having to buy more memory, disk or even a new PC.In this essay, we look at some of the literature around technology S-curves and the examples used by the authors to support their hypotheses. As an exercise, we also put together a basic outline of how the delivery of recorded music has changed since it was first commercialized in the late 1880s. We map sound quality over time to determine if S-curves are visible and to see if the technologies introduced were connected or disconnected. Although this is not a paper for audiophiles, the technology is of interest because of its pervasiveness and the way changes have been managed, or mismanaged, upon their introduction. Although the topic of S-curves is related to disruptive innovation, we concentrate mostly on S-curves themselves and their usefulness in the context of innovation management.