Implications of the OEN mixture model of the mean wind vector for the generation of synthetic timeseries and for the assessment of extremes

Abstract

This paper extends the results of the “fuzzy” OEN mixture model to estimate the probability densities, autocorrelations and spectra of the individual wind mechanisms within the mixed climates of Rome: Fiumicino and Ciampino, and discusses the implications for synthesising long-term simulation of the surface wind vector and for the assessment of extreme mean wind speeds. The paper confirms, from observations, that the strong diurnal effects observed at these locations are confined to a low range of wind speeds and do not significantly affect the extreme wind speeds for annual, or longer, epochs. A procedure is proposed to simulate exceptionally long timeseries of the mean wind vector from the OEN mixture model to examine convergence of the upper tail of the extreme wind speed distribution to the presumed asymptote.