Implications of the Observed Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Intensity over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) size, usually measured with the radius of gale force wind (34 kt or 17 m s−1), is an important parameter for estimating TC risks such as wind damage, rainfall distribution, and storm surge. Previous studies have reported that there is a very weak relationship between TC size and TC intensity. A close examination presented here using satellite-based wind analyses suggests that the relationship between TC size and intensity is nonlinear. TC size generally increases with increasing TC maximum sustained wind before a maximum of 2.50° latitude at an intensity of 103 kt or 53.0 m s−1 and then slowly decreases as the TC intensity further increases. The observed relationship between TC size and intensity is compared to the relationships produced by an 11-yr seasonal numerical simulation of TC activity. The numerical simulations were able to produce neither the observed maximum sustained winds nor the observed nonlinear relationship between TC size and intensity. This finding suggests that TC size cannot reasonably be simulated with 9-km horizontal resolution and increased resolution is needed to study TC size variations using numerical simulations.