Implications of the New Taliban Government for the Biden Administration

Abstract

ABSTRACT The August 2021Taliban takeover of Kabul, and the prospect of Jihadi influxes from Afghanistan subject to Taliban government manipulation, elicit several international security challenges to the United States, and several international and domestic security challenges to several nation-states in close proximity to Afghanistan. Those countries include, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Pakistan, India, China, and Iran. The threat from potential Jihadi influxes is examined, along with new opportunities for the Biden administration to improve relations with Iran’s Ayatollah Khamene’i and President Raisi by means of what political scientists call “assurance games.” It follows the use of an “ assurance games” framework to help protect Iranian interests in Afghanistan such as the Hazaras for example, has the potential to influence the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks because issue areas in international politics are related. To further this goal, public U.S. administration support for the efforts by the Taliban government to protect Hazara communities in Afghanistan against ISIS-K terrorism is critical for a substantive reengagement of American influence in Afghanistan. At the domestic politics level, this is also a prudent position for President Biden to take after his ill-conceived and costly withdrawal from Afghanistan