Implications of the displacement of tropical cyclones for public policies in the North Atlantic

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are events responsible for the costliest meteorological catastrophes. On average per year over the last decade, they have affected 20 million people, with estimated economic losses US$51.5 billion (Krichene et al., 2023). These consequences reduce the economic growth of the affected countries (Berlemann & Wenzel, 2018). Take Jamaica, for instance, where annual damages caused by tropical cyclones are estimated at 0.5%, reaching up to 10% of the Gross Domestic Product (Adam & Bevan, 2020). The climatology of tropical cyclone, defined as characteristics averaged over years, controls parameters like tracks, intensification, number of storms, all crucial for induced hazards (winds, precipitation, storm surge and waves). In recent years, anomalous tropical cyclones have impacted the coasts worldwide. In 2023, hurricane Otis, without precedent, rapidly intensified off the coast of the coast of Acapulco (Mexico), resulting in at least 52 deaths and estimated damage exceeding 10 billion USD. The track of tropical cyclone Kenneth struck areas of Mozambique where no previous tropical cyclone had impacted before, resulting in 45 casualties and $100 million in damage (Mawren et al., 2020). The future of tropical cyclones is impregnated with uncertainty and is a matter of concern, which have motivated the recent advance in this topic. Several authors asseverate an increase in intensity, reduce in frequency (Bloemendaal, et al., 2022; T. Knutson et al., 2020; T. R. Knutson et al., 2010), and their poleward displacement (Studholme et al., 2022). However, the global study of the displacement of tropical cyclones and their characteristics due to the migration of storms has not been integrated into large-scale adaptation planning. This study identifies regions affected by the displacement of storms in the North Atlantic at the municipal administration level. Analysing characteristics under two climatology periods—a baseline climate (1980-2017) and a future high-emission climate scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP8.5 (2015-2050)—we used synthetic tracks (Bloemendaal, et al., 2022) generated with a model based on STORM  (Bloemendaal et al., 2020). Four Global Climate Models (CMCC, CNRM, EC-Earth, and HadGEM3) were examined to evaluate uncertainty, focusing on frequency, intensity, and critical parameters such as size, translation speed, track complexity, residence time in front of the coast, and relative direction to the shoreline. This study identifies hotspots where tropical cyclone characteristics are spatially displaced, increasing the exposure to tropical cyclones in these regions. For example, the Canary Islands in Spain show that hurricanes of category 1, in present conditions, have a return period of 215 years, reducing to 62 years in the SSP8.5 scenario. This is in line with the recent records, the Hermine storm in 2022 almost impacted their coasts. The results raise questions about our public policies for future adaptation. In areas historically unaffected and unprepared for tropical cyclones, the corresponding government may lack and require prevention systems for tropical cyclones, such as warning alarms, reducing subsidies for coastal development or implementing disaster relief policies.