Implications of Recent Changes in United States Farm Price Support Policies

Abstract

AYEAR ago there was widespread concern, in the United States at least, that the world was running out of food. Most news relating to current food production and supplies was unfavorable. The monsoons in India were failing for the second successive year. Short grain crops in the Communist countries had required large purchases from Western exporters. The disappearance of excess stocks in the United States and an unfavorable wheat yield outlook contributed to the uncertainty. After a careful assessment of probable world needs in the 18 months ahead, the national wheat acreage allotments for the 1967 crop were increased sharply. Within a few weeks after announcement of the larger allotment for the 1967 wheat crop, the world outlook turned more favorable. Canada, Australia, and the Soviet Union harvested record wheat crops. Argentina and western Europe harvested good crops of both wheat and feed grains. Feed grain harvests in eastern Europe were good, and a few months later South Africa produced a record corn crop. These excellent crops increased world export availabilities and also reduced the import demands in some of the deficit areas. As a result, United States exports of feed grains, soybeans, and wheat in the past six months have been lower than anticipated. We in the United States appear to have met the 1966 food emergency with our reserve production capacity not fully tested. We brought some 20 million acres back into production this year, increasing wheat, feed grains, and soybean acreages. On the basis of current yield estimates, we expect to supply all available commercial and concessional export outlets from the 1967 crops, add modestly to our 426-million-bushel wheat stocks and our 100-millionbushel soybean carry-over, and maintain a 40to 45-million-ton feed grain carry-over.