Implications of North Atlantic warming for a possible increase of dust activity in northern East Asia

Abstract

This study investigates variations of the March dust activities in northern East Asia (NEA) during 1980–2021 based on dust aerosol optical thickness (DAOT) from Moder-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 dataset. In particular, the roles of the atmospheric circulation and remote sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the long-term changes of dust activities are analyzed. Results show that the NEA dust impacts on the environment have a sign of increasing on downstream East Asia, North Pacific, and even western North America. The large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over Eurasia play an important role in the increased dust activities over northern East Asia. A quasi-barotropic wave train from the North Atlantic to southern Asia is identified as the key atmospheric circulation factor in the variations of dust activities over the NEA. The increased pressure gradient by the wave train in the NEA strengthens the northwesterly winds and facilitates the increase of intensity and frequency of dust activities there. Further analysis indicates that the anomalous wave train is forced by the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. Sensitivity experiments with a numerical model confirm the impact of the remote SST forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean on the formation of this anomalous wave train. A linear extrapolation of the long-term decadal North Atlantic SST anomalies provides a possibility for the near-term prediction of dust activities and it suggests that the frequency and intensity of dust activities may increase in the next decade.