Abstract
Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil’s agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand; however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits.
Highlights
At the COP21 conference, 195 countries have agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C [1]
Year 2020 Volume 8, Issue 2, pp 304-327 effects of agricultural practices and land use, the AFOLU sector is directly responsible of 24% of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions [3]
The results section has been separated into three parts: technological diffusion and energy use in the agricultural sector, land demand projections and emissions related to land use and country-level primary energy use and emissions considering all sectors in the energy system as well as emissions from land and agricultural production
Summary
At the COP21 conference, 195 countries have agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C [1]. The Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) is responsible for the demand of 8.2 EJ year−1 of energy, with diesel (4.1 EJ year−1) and electricity (2.0 EJ year−1) as the main energy sources [2]. If the whole supply chain is considered plus the Garcia Kerdan, I., et al Implications of Future Natural Gas Demand on. Year 2020 Volume 8, Issue 2, pp 304-327 effects of agricultural practices and land use, the AFOLU sector is directly responsible of 24% of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions [3]. The introduction of modern technology and practices is central to limit the sector’s role in climate change [4]. With the aim of limiting an increase in temperature below 1.5 °C, the AFOLU sector could play an important role in achieving this target, mainly by:
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