Implications of East Asian summer and winter monsoons for interannual aerosol variations over central-eastern China

Abstract

Abstract Air quality change is generally driven by two factors: pollutant emissions and meteorology, which are difficult to distinguish via observations. To identify the contribution of meteorological factor to air quality change, an aerosol simulation from 1995 to 2004 with the global air quality model GEM-AQ/EC was designed without year-to-year changes in the anthropogenic aerosol (including sulfate and organic and black carbon) emissions over the 10-year span. To assess the impact of interannual variations of East Asian monsoon (EAM) on air quality change in China, this modeling study focused on the region of central-eastern China (CEC), a typical East Asian monsoon (EAM) region with high anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The simulation analysis showed that the interannual variability in surface aerosols over CEC was driven by fluctuation in meteorological factors associated with EAM changes. Large amplitudes of interannual variability in surface aerosol concentrations reaching 20–30% relative to the 10-year averages were found over southern CEC in summer and over northern CEC in winter. The weakened near-surface winds of EAMs in both summer and winter were significantly correlated with aerosol increases over most areas of CEC. The summer and winter monsoon changes enhance the surface aerosol concentrations with increasing trend rates exceeding 30% and 40% over the southern and northern CEC region, respectively, during the 10 years. The composite analyses of aerosol concentrations in weak and strong monsoon years revealed that positive anomalies in surface aerosol concentrations during weak summer monsoon years were centered over the vast CEC region from the North China Plain to the Sichuan Basin, and the anomaly pattern with “northern higher” and “southern lower” surface aerosol levels was distributed over CEC in weak winter monsoon years. Aerosol washout by summer monsoon rainfall exerted an impact on CEC aerosol distribution in summer; aerosol dry depositions in connection with atmospheric boundary layer conditions resulted in wintertime aerosol variations over CEC. Climate change with regard to EAMs could modulate the interannual variations in aerosols and air quality over CEC by changing near-surface winds, precipitation and atmospheric boundary layer.