Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North Western Himalaya, India

Abstract

Indian Himalayan region has warmed significantly in last few decades. Winter precipitation has become more variable with increase in liquid precipitation except in Karakoram Himalaya. There has been significant increase in winter seasonal precipitation in last three decades in Lower Himalayan regions whereas Higher Himalaya has shown decrease. The snow cover area has decreased everywhere in Indian Himalaya except in Karakoram where it has increased marginally. The increase in liquid precipitation in place of snow, may prove disastrous in some regions where regolith is loose and dry. The rapid erosion from mountain slopes would give rise to many other hazards downstream. Extreme winter precipitation events may produce extensive avalanches, which may travel kilometers to cause extensive damage in hitherto safe areas. All these changes coupled with the increase in number of extreme precipitation events in past few decades have brought in a new climatic shift, which may have far reaching consequences on geopolitical situation in Indian Himalayan region in near future.