Implications of an uncertain future for port planning

Abstract

The evolving function of a port, and many logistical, technological, and economic uncertainties under which it must operate, make the planning and design of these complex socio-technical infrastructures very challenging. A Master Plan of a port is the instrument by which the port's (expansion) strategy in the marketplace is defined. Therefore, a Port Master Plan needs to be dynamic and responsive to all external developments during its lifetime. The existing Master Planning approach is static and as a result it is poorly equipped to deal with many uncertainties in the port and shipping industry. A new approach is required. This article proposes an adaptive approach to planning that combines elements of Assumption-Based Planning (ABP), developed in the early 1990s, and Adaptive Policymaking (APM), developed in 2001. It identifies in a structured way the uncertainty in an existing plan, and subsequently improves its robustness and adaptability through taking actions either in the planning stage or by preparing actions in advance that can be taken as the uncertainties resolve themselves. The article illustrates this approach by applying it to the current plan for Maasvlakte 2, the ongoing port expansion of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The value of this proactive and dynamic approach lies in its manner of dealing with uncertainties. It leads planners to recognize vulnerabilities in a plan and incorporate strategies for dealing with them, adapting to new developments, and building in capacity for taking advantage of new opportunities. The objective of using this adaptive approach is to realize a Master Plan robust across many futures, so that the port can meet the requirements of its stakeholders during its entire lifetime.