Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model

Abstract

This study examines the transition of Indonesia's electricity system 2020–2050 to achieve Paris Agreement target using TIMES model. Three scenarios, including Reference Case, Current Policy, and Paris Agreement are reviewed. Reference case system will be 77% dominated by unabated coal power plant, and Current Policy will only reduce its share by 10% in 2050. Furthermore, the emissions from these scenarios are still half of estimated electricity emission in NDC due to different demand level between the policy target and current level indicating the ambition gap. Achieving well below 2°C long-term target, 50% of RE and 40% of IGCC-CCS in electricity production are needed. There will be 48% increase in investment compare to reference case and constant electricity production to current level. Uncertainty of carbon budget will not shift the emission peak or penetration of solar PV utility-scale, but will greatly affect the deployment time, as soon as 2030 or as later as 2040, and capacity of IGCC-CCS and the presence of BECCS up to 2050. Reform of Indonesia's electricity system needs to be carried out because of changes in technology and investment directions, the need to accelerate technological readiness, coupled with the current condition of market structure and electricity prices.