Implication of the new VCS jurisdictional and nested REDD methodology on baselines of existing avoided deforestation projects

Abstract

A changing climate is poised to inflict massive-scale damage through extreme weather events. Preserving Earth's forests stands out as a critical resource in our battle to mitigate climate change. One pivotal approach for this endeavour is the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), a climate change mitigation solution currently being enacted through locally-based projects certified by the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) Association. Nevertheless, these REDD projects have recently faced severe scrutiny for potentially overemphasizing their effectiveness. To address these concerns, the VCS has put forth a new jurisdictional and nested REDD methodology. This study, therefore, aims to assess the impact of the new REDD methodology on the baseline measurements of existing REDD projects within the VCS registry. For this assessment, we selected four REDD projects, each spanning across four continents and encompassing two major forest types. An in-depth analysis of these four projects reveals a noteworthy trend: under the new methodology, three of them are projected to experience a substantial reduction in the number of issued credits compared to the previous methodologies. Consequently, it appears that the new REDD methodology holds promise in generating higher-quality credits by reducing the potential for an inflated baseline.