Abstract
The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3235-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
The Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement (PA) (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2015)
Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/ Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) produces a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve by experimenting with specific carbon price pathway scenarios (e.g., 3 % per year increase). This information was used for the calibration of the MAC function in a Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) type intertemporal optimization model (Nordhaus and Sztorc 2013)—the Simple Climate Model for Optimization (SCM4OPT)
None Cancun pledge Same as RCP2.6 emissions pathway Cancun pledge Cancun pledge
Summary
The Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement (PA) (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2015). The PA provides a framework for global action to address climate change in the period after 2020. The objective of the agreement is to maintain the increase in global temperatures well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The PA requires Parties to prepare nationally determined contributions (NDCs), indicating an individual country’s emissions reduction commitments, take measures to achieve their objectives, and report on progress. To raise the level of ambition over time, Parties must submit updated NDCs every 5 years. Each Party’s new NDC must be more ambitious than its previous NDC. Over 180 Parties to the UNFCCC communicated their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) for 2025/2030 before COP21
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