Implication of backward contact tracing in the presence of overdispersed transmission in COVID-19 outbreaks.

Akira Endo,Katherine E Atkins,Quentin J Leclerc,Graham F Medley,Sebastian Funk,Gwenan M Knight,Adam J Kucharski,

doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16344.3

Akira Endo, Katherine E Atkins + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16344.3

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Abstract

Introduction: Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns. Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is particularly valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions (overdispersion). Methods: By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19. We estimated the typical size of clusters that can be reached by backward tracing and simulated the incremental effectiveness of combining backward tracing with conventional forward tracing. Results: Across ranges of parameter values consistent with dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, backward tracing is expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than a randomly chosen case, typically increasing the proportion of subsequent cases averted by a factor of 2-3. The estimated number of cases averted by backward tracing became greater with a higher degree of overdispersion. Conclusion: Backward contact tracing can be an effective tool for outbreak control, especially in the presence of overdispersion as is observed with SARS-CoV-2.

Highlights

Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns
Across plausible ranges of parameter values, we found that introducing backward tracing in addition to forward tracing increased the effectiveness of contact tracing by a factor of [2,3] (Figure 2 and Extended data, S1 and S219)
We found that a higher degree of overdispersion resulted in a larger absolute number of cases averted by backward tracing (Figure 3 and Extended data, S3)

Summary

Introduction

Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns. Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions (overdispersion). Methods: By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19. We estimated the typical size of clusters that can be reached by backward tracing and simulated the incremental effectiveness of combining backward tracing with conventional forward tracing. The estimated number of cases averted by backward tracing became greater with a higher degree of overdispersion. Para 4, L4: Propose repositioning the phrase “using a simple branching process model” to the first line, following “In the present study” Para 1, L5-8: The sentence beginning “By identifying...” repeats, in my view, much of the information given in the opening sentence and could be removed.

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