Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Heera Lee,Mark Rounsevell,Eric Audsley,Calum Brown,Ian Holman,Bumsuk Seo,George Cojocaru

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744

Abstract

Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today’s levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

Highlights

Human-induced global CO2 emissions reached 36.2 Gt CO2 in 2016 [1] and global temperature averaged more than 1 °C above pre-industrial levels
The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders
We investigate whether Europe can make a proportional contribution to the 1.5 °C target through afforestation/reforestation while still producing sufficient food to feed the European population, and without relying on other world regions to make up shortfalls in either food production or carbon sequestration

Summary

Introduction

Human-induced global CO2 emissions reached 36.2 Gt CO2 in 2016 [1] and global temperature averaged more than 1 °C above pre-industrial levels. At the present rate of increase of 0.1 °C–0.2 °C per decade [2], temperatures will likely exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels around 2050 [3]. Limiting temperature increases to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C as planned in the ‘Paris Agreement’ [4], is an enormous challenge, and one that requires immediate and substantial global emissions reductions as well as adaptation and mitigation in a wide range of human systems [5–7]. The NDCs recognise the possibility of internationally transferable mitigation actions [4]. Land-based mitigation is among the most prominent strategies, being included in 148 of 160 NDCs [8], and accounting for up to 30% of planned emissions reductions [9–11]. Efforts to maximise the areal extent of forests through afforestation, reforestation or avoided deforestation are central [12]

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Conclusion