Abstract

Meeting Brazil’s ambitious national commitments on both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation depends on securing its reserves of forest carbon and biodiversity. Brazil’s ‘Forest Code’ is a key tool to reconcile environmental preservation and agricultural production; it limits deforestation and requires forest restoration in illegally deforested areas. However, not all provisions of the law’s 2012 revision have yet been implemented and some are facing new challenges. Using modelled land use change projections for the whole of the country, we show that full implementation and enforcement of the law has the potential to contribute to conserving biodiversity. Biodiversity outcomes will be especially positive if (i) deforested areas are restored in ways that support recolonization by native species and (ii) additional measures are implemented to protect native vegetation in areas like Caatinga dry forests and Cerrado savannas, which may experience added pressure displaced from other regions by Forest Code implementation.

Highlights

  • As a mega-diverse country, with two of the world’s biodiversity hotspots (Myers et al 2000) and the world’s largest remaining expanse of tropical rain forest, Brazil has helped to set global objectives on halting biodiversity loss

  • Preventing illegal deforestation across Brazil (IDC_Brazil) on its own reduces by more than a quarter the number of species projected to lose over 5% of their habitat 2010–2050 compared to a scenario without the Forest Code, where illegal deforestation is prevented only in the Atlantic Forest (No_FC; Fig. 1)

  • If illegal deforestation controls are not fully enforced (IDC_Imperfect) more species lose over 5% of their habitat than if there is full enforcement (IDC_Brazil)

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Summary

Introduction

As a mega-diverse country, with two of the world’s biodiversity hotspots (Myers et al 2000) and the world’s largest remaining expanse of tropical rain forest, Brazil has helped to set global objectives on halting biodiversity loss. Many Brazilian species and ecosystems are under increasing pressure, with agricultural expansion and related land use change being major threats here (de Mello et al 2015; Moura et al 2013; de Castro Solar et al 2016), as they are globally (Newbold et al 2015). The majority of land owners abide by deforestation laws, not all do and this contributes to the overall rate of deforestation (Rajão et al 2020). Brazil’s national biodiversity targets, which mirror the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi targets, aim to address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss, reduce direct pressures on biodiversity, promote sustainable use, and improve the status of biodiversity (MMA 2016). The national targets to be achieved by 2020 include significantly reducing the risk of extinction of threatened species (target 12) and at least halving the rate of loss of native habitats (relative to 2009 rates; target 5; MMA 2016)

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