Implementation the fuzzy modeling technology by means of fuzzyTECH into the process of management the riskiness of business entities activity

Abstract

The study was carried out as essential for increasing the importance of the issue of introducing fuzzy modelling by means of fuzzyTECH to manage the risks of activities. It has been determined that the feasibility of using fuzzyTECH-based fuzzy modelling is explained by the fact that there is a possibility to specify the levels and values of linguistic variables for these levels. Moreover, the fuzzyTECH software package makes it possible to automate this process. A block diagram of the algorithm was built to introduce fuzzy modelling by means of fuzzyTECH into managing the risks of economic entities. The proposed steps are general for use by economic entities in various fields of activity. Based on the constructed block diagram of the managerial decision-making algorithm, it is advisable to apply it at the level of intermediate values of the intervals of each individual indicator, as well as for the obtained levels of risk of the activities of economic entities. These levels of risk were determined to be very high, high, medium, low, and very low. Depending on the level of risk to economic entities, it is advisable to develop appropriate measures and make managerial decisions. It is essential to include among them the development of measures for quick and gradual responses, tactical and strategic, as well as measures already at the level of the economic entity’s strategy. In order to test the block of the algorithm responsible for the assessment, the system of techniques for assessing the risks of activities was tested for the studied economic entities. The intervals of the values of the scale selected to assess to indicators were obtained; a fuzzy model to estimate the risks of the economic entities by means of fuzzyTECH was built, set, and tested, and a system of fuzzy inference was obtained. Using the tools of fuzzy sets, a model for calculating the number of points for the aggregate assessment of the risks of the researched economic entities was built. It constitutes the preconditions for the transfer of the obtained scientific and practical results already into the system of risk-oriented management of economic entities