IMPLEMENTATION OF VECTOR AUTO-REGRESSION MODELS IN TOURISM: STATE OF THE ART ANALYSIS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Purpose The dissertation focuses on time series analysis and is based on several research strategies and methods. The methodology used in the research process was published in four papers as part of international scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science database. Since tourism is one of the most lagged industries in science there is need for new and innovative approaches in key tourist sector determinants modelling and forecasting. This doctoral thesis introduces an extension of time series methodology that focuses on investigating and testing the normal distribution of residuals, as a key adequacy prerequisite of econometric models. This issue has not systematically been considered in quantitative approaches in tourism. The motivation for research of the doctoral thesis are multidimensional: to filter previous research on time series in tourism and to theoretically and empirically improve and redesign time series methodology and methods for tourism. Both issues were successfully presented in one of the published papers. Finally, tourism forecasts should be based on reliable models as evident, from the most recent shocks, ex-ante tourism forecasting has to be considered crucial in evaluating model efficiency. The dissertation aimed to research and develop appropriate econometric models able to capture the specifics of multiple interactions in the tourism market. The research seeks to develop econometric models for the Republics of Slovenia and Croatia, two countries whose economic development is predicated on tourism. Four goals and four specific objectives have been specified during the research process: 1) To introduce an improved time series approach in cointegrated panels. The first specific objective (SO1) is to test at least ten econometric modelling structures that reduce cycle breaks. 2) To examine previous theoretical thinking regarding the cointegration of time series, cross-sectional data, and panels. The second specific objective (SO2) is to outline at least 250 previous empirical studies for the tourism industry. 3) To examine cointegration in tourism data for Slovenia and Croatia. The third objective (SO3) is to model at least three econometric time series equations and mathematical theorems/ lemmas for the tourism industry. 4) To improve and better understand unit root tests in tourism. The specific objective (SO4) is to approach the design of at least three stable and innovative models.