Implementation of MNL choice models in the passenger origin-destination simulator (PODS)

Abstract

In this article, we describe the implementation of a choice-based forecasting methodology in the Passenger Origin-Destination Simulator. The parameters of a MNL choice model (fare and restrictions) are estimated for each of the 482 markets of a large domestic network at the various stages of the booking window. These estimates are then used to produce a new MNL demand forecast at the path level. Revenue results are presented when comparing this new MNL forecaster versus existing methods like leg standard, path standard and hybrid forecasting, under both leg and network optimization.