Implementation of hybrid wind speed prediction model based on different data mining and signal processing approaches

Abstract

Accurate estimation of wind speed (WS) data, which greatly influences meteorological parameters, plays a vital role in the safe operation and optimization of the power system and water resource management. The study's main aim is to combine artificial intelligence and signal decomposition techniques to improve WS prediction accuracy. Feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBNN), support vector machine (SVM) and Gaussian processes regression (GPR) models, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) were used to forecast the WS values ​​1 month ahead in Burdur meteorology station. Statistical criteria such as Willmott's index of agreement, mean bias error, mean squared error, determination coefficient, Taylor diagram and regression analysis, and graphical indicators were used to evaluate the prediction success of the models. As a result of the study, it was determined that both wavelet transform and EMD signal processing increased the WS prediction performance of the stand-alone ML model. The best performance was obtained with the hybrid EMD-Matern 5/2 kernel GPR with test (R2:0.802) and validation (R2:0.606). The most successful model structure was obtained using input variables with a delay of up to 3 months. The study's results contribute to wind energy-related institutions in terms of practical use, planning, and management of wind energy.