Implementation of Forecasting with the Monte Carlo Simulation Method to Predict Supply and Demand for Psychotropic Drug Products

Abstract

The availability of drugs is one of the needs that supports the presence of health in the community. Patient certainty regarding the availability of drugs becomes increasingly important for patients who use psychotropic drugs. This type is a dangerous drug and needs to be controlled. Control is carried out to avoid drug abuse outside of medical purposes. Two conflicting sides between the importance of ensuring the availability and controlling their use can be resolved, one of which is by measuring supply and demand. The availability of psychotropic drugs should be adjusted to demand. The problem is that we cannot know demand that has not yet occurred, drugs have an expiration date, and procuring drugs takes time. One way is to predict the demand when supplying drugs so that the order quantity is appropriate. The prediction method used is the Monte Carlo Simulation Method. One example of implementation is the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Method. As a result, the Monte Carlo method successfully made predictions based on existing data. In addition, it was found that the Monte Carlo Method tended to the distribution of the data used. The closer the distance between the data, the higher the prediction accuracy obtained. Uncertainty in actual demand is also a big challenge for producing accurate predictions based on patterns. Prediction results will be more accurate with more data patterns and variations. Implementation of prediction results with EOQ makes the number of drugs that should be ordered based on demand that is likely to occur.