Implementation of Actuarial Risk/Need Assessment and its Effect on Community Supervision Revocations

Abstract

While studies examining the predictive validity of the Level of Service Inventory — Revised (LSI-R) are useful and should continue, more research needs to be done in the area of systemic change: Once the LSI-R has been adopted and fully integrated into an agency's work, what systemic changes may occur? Does implementing a third-generation risk/need assessment tool, for example, truly facilitate an agency's ability to abide by the “risk principle” of correctional intervention? This article has two central objectives. First, the LSI-R composite score is used to predict case outcome using several years' worth of data from a large Midwestern city. The data were gathered from the agencies that conduct supervision in the community. The statistical relationship between the LSI-R score and case outcome (success vs. failure) is investigated and assessed. Second, the article provides a cursory look at rates of revocation plus transfer to prison over time (post LSI-R implementation).