Abstract
In this paper, an automatic aftershock forecasting system for China is presented. Based on a parameter-free historical analogy method, this system can produce short-term aftershock forecast, including seismic sequence types and the magnitude of the largest aftershock, within a few minutes after a major earthquake and can further provide scientists and government agencies with a set of background information for consultation purposes. First, the system construction concept and operation framework are described, and an evaluation of the forecast performance of the system is then conducted considering earthquakes from 2019 to 2021 in mainland China. The results indicate that the sequence type classification precision reaches 83.5%, and the magnitude of more than 90% of the aftershocks is smaller than that of upper range forecast. This system is fast and easy to control, and all the reports and maps can be produced approximately 5 min after earthquake occurrence. Practical use verifies that the application of this system has greatly improved the efficiency of post-earthquake consultation in mainland China.
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