Implementasi Metode Penghalusan Ekponensial Tunggal Dalam Prediksi Penjualan Buku

Abstract

The prediction of the quantity of product sales in the future is intended to control the amount of existing product stock, so that product shortages or excess stock can be minimized. When the quantity of sales can be predicted accurately, the fulfillment of consumer demand can be sought on time and the cooperation of the store with the relationship is maintained well so that the store can avoid losing both sales and consumers. The purpose of this study is to compare the effectiveness of the use of the Single Exponential Smoothing method and methods Double Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing parameter value a = 0.5 for forecasting sales by comparing the error values in the two methods using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) method, the MSE results of the Single Exponential Smoothing method is 4967.75 while the MSE Double Exponential Smoothing is 5113.03. Thus, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate than Double Exponential Smoothing in calculating book sales forecasting because it has a low MSE value.