Abstract
The damming of rivers has altered their hydrological regimes. The current study evaluated the impacts of major hydrological interventions of the Zhikong and Pangduo hydropower dams on the Lhasa River, which was exposed in the form of break and change points during the double-mass curve analysis. The coefficient of variability (CV) for the hydro-meteorological variables revealed an enhanced climate change phenomena in the Lhasa River Basin (LRB), where the Lhasa River (LR) discharge varied at a stupendous magnitude from 2000 to 2016. The Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope estimator supported aggravated hydro-meteorological changes in LRB, as the rainfall and LR discharge were found to have been significantly decreasing while temperature was increasing from 2000 to 2016. The Sen’s slope had a largest decrease for LR discharge in relation to the rainfall and temperature, revealing that along with climatic phenomena, additional phenomena are controlling the hydrological regime of the LR. Reservoir functioning in the LR is altering the LR discharge. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling of LR discharge under the reservoir’s influence performed well in terms of coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). Thus, simulation-based LR discharge could substitute observed LR discharge to help with hydrological data scarcity stress in the LRB. The simulated–observed approach was used to predict future LR discharge for the time span of 2017–2025 using a seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The predicted simulation-based and observation-based discharge were closely correlated and found to decrease from 2017 to 2025. This calls for an efficient water resource planning and management policy for the area. The findings of this study can be applied in similar catchments.
Highlights
The reservoir operation years showed themselves in the double-mass curve analysis for both the long-term (1956–2016) data series and the study time span of 2000–2016 as the break points in both curves
2016, and they showed that the variability in the hydro-meteorological phenomena for Lhasa River Basin (LRB) was remarkably intensified in the latter time span compared to the years during the first time span
For the former time span, the Lhasa River (LR) discharge varied in accordance with the rainfall variation. For the latter time span, the variation in LR discharge was seen to be far greater than the rainfall variability
Summary
Dams are intended to offer substantial aid to humankind by ensuring an enhanced water availability for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses, as well as increased capability of flood regulation and hydropower generation [1]. The construction of dams has considerably changed the natural flow regime of rivers worldwide. The influence of human activities in altering river discharge has profoundly increased in recent decades [4]. Over an intermediate time scale (e.g., decadal scale), human interferences in terms of water consumption, land-use change, dam construction, and sand mining, among others, are the powerful factors that escalate basin-scale hydrological changes. A site-specific study is needed to disclose the governing effects of human disruptions on these hydrological changes [5,6,7]
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