Abstract
The objective of this publication is to present a modeling system that allows investigating the possible climate change-driven effects of air pollutants on human health. The system connects global climate change to ambient air pollution concentrations that then are linked to epidemiological endpoints. The tool has been applied to quantify the future (2030, 2050 and 2100) impact on air pollution and health of two of the IPCC global climate scenarios over the cities: Madrid, Milan and London (zone Kensington-Chelsea) with different very high spatial resolutions (100, 200 and 10 meters) respect to the present (2011). Results indicate how ambient air pollutant concentrations respond to different climatic conditions, and how human health could be affected by changes in air pollution induced by global warning. The system includes global climate simulations, nested with regional/urban meteorological models (prognostic and diagnostic) to drive chemical transport models (offline and online modes) and a computational fluid dynamic model keeping anthropogenic emissions and the urban landscape at reference level (2011) to isolate the effects of the global climate over the city. The results of these simulations suggest that climate will have an important effect on urban air pollution and health over the next several decades, especially under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario.
Highlights
Rapid advances in computer science and physics of the atmosphere, especially in the use of downscaling tech-How to cite this paper: José, R.S., Pérez, J.L., Pérez, L., González, R.M., Pecci, J., Garzón, A. and Palacios, M. (2016) Impacts on the Urban Air Quality and Health of Global Climate Scenarios Using Different Dynamical Downscaling Approaches
Uncertainty in Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change generally increases as the spatial scale of interest decreases
Spatial differences of different health outcomes changes between 2100 and 2011 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the three European cities calculated from the WRF/ChemCALMET-CMAQL-MICROSYS modelling system are showed
Summary
Rapid advances in computer science and physics of the atmosphere, especially in the use of downscaling tech-How to cite this paper: José, R.S., Pérez, J.L., Pérez, L., González, R.M., Pecci, J., Garzón, A. and Palacios, M. (2016) Impacts on the Urban Air Quality and Health of Global Climate Scenarios Using Different Dynamical Downscaling Approaches. (2016) Impacts on the Urban Air Quality and Health of Global Climate Scenarios Using Different Dynamical Downscaling Approaches. Poor Air Quality (AQ) is a global issue and the evidence for adverse health effects of surface pollutants, such as ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), has been strengthened in the 2013 assessment by the World Health Organization. Air pollution in both cities and rural areas was estimated to cause 3.7 million premature deaths worldwide in 2012 alone [2]. Downscaling processes and procedures offer information on climate change at an appropriate spatial and temporal scale [7]
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